Thursday, October 23, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
GDR user Koll recently asked:
Can you explain why so many teams in this leagues waived players during the FAB?
I understand they get more money and years, but how does that work and why doesn't everyone do it?
Here's a quick run-down:
When you waive a player during the FAB, they don't count against your FAB budget in terms of cash, year or PB/NT clauses. So people will put a player on waivers later in the FAB when they are low on cash, years and/or PB/NTs.
Most people will then put a waiver claim on the player they just waived, and often end up re-claiming them after the end of the waiver period. Once they are re-claimed, so long as your FAB is over, then they will count against the regular season cash limit (+$10M), years limit (no-limit, but all contracts are 1Y when signed during the regular season) and PB/NT limit (no limit).
The risk here is that you put a player on waivers, and they get claimed by another GM. This is especially risky for good players and/or players with good contracts. So that's the counter-weight to this move. This also means that this move can be particularly effective with 'bubble players' who might be carrying big contracts who you're willing to risk losing, but don't want to lose outright.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
You can find a new GDR blogs page in the community section of GDR.
Or head there directly by clicking here. On the page you can check out the latest posts in all the GDR blogs and Twitter feed on one page at a quick glance.
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Well this is it. The last part of our Special Teams day, and the last installment of our 2008 Bargain Hunt. What a long, strange trip it’s been. Okay – strange at least.
Part 12 – Kick Returners
The kick returner. They do nothing, nothing, nothing. And then blammo – they go off – and usually for your opponent. As a result, there are often resolute owners willing to overpay the following season. Don’t be one of them.
There are two routes to a good KR-deal. Pay as little as possible ($0.5M) and take you chances – or – spend more but obtain someone who also plays a regular position so that you can double-dip for your payout. If you go the cheapo route, look no further than Washington, Breaston, and Davis who you very well might be able to snag for the league minimum.
Despite a fine 2007, Cribbs is being overpaid at $2.0M unless you think he can top last season, but Hester and Ginn Jr. might (stress ‘might’) be worth the money if you think you have use for them as receivers as well. McGee is an okay defender and an okay returner, but we’re not sure the combined effect is worth $3.4M a year.
|9||Ginn Jr, T.||WR||MIA||0.5||2.8||1.6||9.5|
Posted by Scott at 2:09 PM
Part 11 – Place Kickers
Compared to punters, place kickers are downright sexy. They can score points! But who’s worth the dough? That’s the real question.
An excellent deal here is Crosby. The top kicker in 2007, but still one of the cheapest in 2008. For some reason it seems people are anticipating the loss of Favre affecting his ability to put up big numbers again. But the truth is – unless you think Rodgers will be disastrously bad, a ‘slight’ drop in Packers offensive prowess will only help Crosby since more stalled (but not completely impotent) drives should give him more chances.
Suisham might similarly benefit from a Washington offense that could improve to being ‘okay’, while Hanson is attractive for the same reason but has the added benefit of kicking indoors which comes in handy during the winter and playoff season.
We can’t recommend Brown (or any kicker) for $2.5M, but if you can get someone like Bironas for $2.0M or under – it could be a good buy.
Posted by Scott at 2:06 PM
With the regular season kicking off tomorrow, it’s time for our Special Teams ‘Olympic TripleCast’ (does anyone remember that?). Let’s get things started with the champions of the drive-gone-wrong: the punters.
Part 10 – Punters
This one’s easy. Shane Lechler is one of the best punters in the game, year-in-year-out, and a slightly depressed ’07 season has him going for near his minimum salary of $1.5M. For that price you’ll get near double the fantasy points per million dollars compare to San Francisco’s Andy Lee who had the misfortune of being the number one punter as a result of his heavy utilization.
You usually want to stay away from punters on good or improving teams, so it won’t be hard to recommend Colquitt, but Plackemeier could see his number diminish (as they did in the second half of ’07 as the team improved on offense).
And let’s look back at Lee again. $4.4M! For a punter. Yikes. Yes – SF looks bad again this year. But they should actually score a few times. Just say no.
Posted by Scott at 2:02 PM
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Here we go with our last defensive installment, appropriately devoted to the last line of defense. Stay tuned for special teams tomorrow.
Part 9 – Defensive Backs
Compared to say, linebackers, the DB position is more noisy since things like interceptions are more sporadic while tackles, which allow for statistical consistency, are a smaller part of a fantasy DB’s portfolio.
Topping the DB-deal-list by a large margin is Leigh Bodden. A top-15 DB going for a top-25 price at just $2.6M. Chris Harris is a top-10 DB going for a top-20 price and also makes a nice target. And on the upper tier, Cortland Finnegan is a potential top-5 back going for a top-10 price at $3.4M.
At the other end of the spectrum is Trufant, who had a great ’07, but is unlikely to end up at the top of the ’08 field despite the hefty $4.2M salary he is commanding. Atogwe is an interesting case – seems he is a fashionable pick this year – so be careful not to overpay in your league.
Posted by Scott at 3:13 PM
And now for the men in the middle. Of the defense, that is. Defensive backs coming up next.
Part 8 – Linebackers
Given the more ‘stable’ nature of the linebacker position, paying ‘asking’ price is a more reasonable affair than at some other positions. But there still are some points to be gleaned from the data.
The top 2 players here (by FP/$M), Williams and Boley, are great deals for $3.0M. In fact Henderson, Harrison and Witherspoon are too. You don’t really start paying for a brand name until you hit Barnett. He and Ryans have some cache , but don’t have the number from 2007 to justify the price tags.
On the flipside, we’re not sure why London Fletcher is going for an even $5M a year, but we wouldn’t pay that ourselves. If you want top tier, Patrick Willis is also going to command top dollar, but for a cool 10 FP/G, he might be worth the $5.5M a week he seems to be going for. Urlacher is going for the same price. Who would you rather have?
Posted by Scott at 3:10 PM
Here’s part one of our defensive player blowout (or part seven overall for you collectors out there).
Part 7 - Defensive Linemen
Let’s start at the top. Or second from the top by 2007 fantasy points. We speak, then, of Patrick Kerney, who was the 2nd best DL in 2007, but us mysteriously 8th in salary amongst the top 10. So unless you shop at the same A&P as Michael Strahan and have inside info on a possible return, we’re going to skip him in our modest discussion and crown Kerney our Sofa King Great Buy of the Week.
As far as middle-tier bargains go – Mario Williams looks like a good buy. Young and talented, he can be had for under $4M on average while still scoring over 6 FP/G in 2007. Plus, there’s upside.
Top DL Jared Allen is overpriced at $6M a year, but he’s available in some leagues for less and may be worth your while if you think he can repeat his 2007 campaign.
|6||Vanden Bosch, K.||TEN||1.5||4.2||6.3||24.1|
Posted by Scott at 3:00 PM
Monday, September 01, 2008
Part 6 – Offensive Lines
Here’s the second installment of today’s ‘Tupac’. Look for a trio of defensive data tomorrow, and special teams on Wednesday.
The nice thing about offensive lines is that they are more consistent on a yearly basis than position players as they a reflection of the entire offense, which changes more slowly than any one player does. This means ‘data-driven’ analyses like this one are even more statistically significant.
Based on this face-value nature, the sweet spot here is probably the Saints OL, which was the 2nd best in 2007, but is the 5th most expensive in 2008. Houston and Tennessee are attractive options, especially and back-up OLs.
Apparently everyone expects the San Diego Offense to reestablish itself as top tier given its 4th-most-expensive price tag in the face of its 10th-best output in 2007. A better option might be Minnesota, whose stock should rise with season-long output from Adrian Peterson.
|3||Green Bay OL||GBP||1.5||2.8||10.3||59.0|
|6||New Orleans OL||NOS||2.5||4.5||12.5||44.9|
|8||New England OL||NEP||3.0||5.5||13.7||40.1|
|10||San Diego OL||SDC||2.0||4.2||9.1||36.5|
Posted by Scott at 1:55 PM
Part 5 – Tight Ends
The two-pack yesterday proved popular, and with the season approaching, we’re going to keep the momentum going with another double threat today.
The Tight End position has developed into a deep one the last couple of years with players like Witten and Gates joining the elite tier previous occupied only by Gonzalez. With depth here, it makes finding a bargain that much more imperative.
Though a healthy Marvin Harrison will reclaim some touchdowns from Clark, he is still going for an under-appreciated rate of $3.5M sporting the highest FP/G of the group. And for slightly less you should be able to score Cooley who still has some upside and he and his QB Jason Campbell mature together.
But for the bargain-bargains, take a look at Lee, Miller, and Watson, depending on whether you think losing Favre, playing alongside Limas Sweed, or coming off a career year and injury are the most worrisome respectively.
On the flipside avoid Gates and Winslow if you are running low on cash and hoping to economize, and keep an eye on the Denver depth chart for an intriguing option in Scheffler.
Posted by Scott at 1:41 PM
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Here's part deux of the Sunday double-header:
Part 4 – Wide Receivers
Time to turn our attention to the wide-outs and the wide range of salaries afforded the top 10 receivers from 2007. If you’re planning on running a West Coast or Fun’N’Gun offense, you’ll need a fleet of receivers, making a bargain among them all the more crucial.
Let’s start at the top – yeah Jennings has a different gun slinging to him this year, but he’s going for less than half of what the other top-10 receivers are going for at just $3.4M. He sports a whopping $37.6 FP/$M value, so pick him up for a top-20 price, and be pleasantly surprised if he manages to stay in the top 10.
It seems like there are still some non-believers as far as Edwards goes, so if you think he’ll be healthy and can reproduce – he should make for a solid bargain target in your league, going for a million or two less than comparable receivers.
But perhaps the biggest story here is Moss. The most expensive WR is also one of the best values? Que? It’s true if you think he’ll come ever close to his epic ’07 campaign. Scoring roughly 50% more than the rest of the field but commanding only 10% more salary, he would be worth every penny even with a sizable drop off in 2008. Basically, if someone else in your league signs Randy Moss for less than $10M, I’m going to show up at your door step and beat you with a rubber hose.
Posted by Scott at 11:55 AM
Having missed a day, we'll throw out a two-fer on this middle-of-the-long-weekend Sunday afternoon. Woot woot!
For our third bargain-hunting installment we turn to the underappreciated fullback. They’re so underappreciated that last years’ FP total seems to be the only real guide for most users. As a result, top point-getters like Leonard and Jones aren’t at the top of the list. However, neither is Heath Evans who might be the most intriguing fullback on the list. On a high-powered, multi-faceted offense, he’ll get some scores, and you just might be able to snag him for a million bucks.
If you are happy with “something” for “nothing”, you should be able to land the likes of Davis and Griffith for the league minimum, yet they should be able to pull down a point or two a game and aid your Power or Classic Run offenses.
The caveat here, of course, is the lack of depth at fullback, so if you need that piece for a smash-mouth scheme, you might have to pony-up if you want Leonard, Jones, or Weaver.
Posted by Scott at 11:35 AM